The US-North Korean Summit: A Great Start

US President Donald Trump and North Korean Leader Kim Jong-un met on June 12 in Singapore to begin a process leading to the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. They made a great start with no gaffs, arguments or incivility. The parties signed a simple aspirational declaration with little detail. But the Summit nonetheless was unparalleled.

Controversy Days Before the Summit

Just days before the Summit, the US main stream media went out of its way to "trash" the prospects for the Summit’s success.

The NY Times, at the forefront of "resistance" to all things Trump, began running highly critical articles seemingly intended to weaken Trump as he headed for the Summit: he was unprepared, incompetent to negotiate, and advised by malevolent or uninformed advisors.

Few media outlets devoted space to the actual issues, preferring to focus on Trump’s personality.

Trump appeared not to help the situation. In Toronto at the G-7 meeting on trade with Canada, Britain, France, Germany, Italy and Japan, Trump took a very aggressive anti-trade stance. Unbelievably, Trump even called for the reinstatement of Russia as a member of the G-7. Russia was expelled when it annexed Crimea from the Ukraine.

World leaders at G7. Photo: REUTERS

Trump’s statement on Russia was concerning for many: on May 31, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov visited Kim, sending a message to Trump on Russia’s intentions.

Canada, during the G-7 meeting, seemed to be accommodating Trump, but when he left for Singapore, PM Justin Trudeau attacked Trump’s tariff policies in what the White House calls a "stunt news conference." A firestorm ensued. Was Trudeau trying to undermine Trump ahead of the Summit?

Was Trump was sending a message to Kim: no one messes with the US, not even Canada its closest ally. Who knows!

Singapore Pre-Summit Meeting

Trump met with Singaporean PM Lee Hsien Loong just after his arrival in the city. This reminded me of how much global leaders misses deceased PM Lee Kuan Yew counsel. He was frequently consulted for his insights into the region, something that would be well-appreciated in the lead up to the Summit.

Unprecedented Diplomacy

Trump and Kim are in unchartered territory.

Trump has managed to throw out the rule book used in past negotiations with North Korea. Supporters offer that as past efforts failed, perhaps something new might be required. Defense One, a web publication, opines that the Summit is a "real time, real world experiment." CNN called this an "unprecedented gamble" by Trump.

Trump and Kim are in unchartered territory. No other US president has met with a North Korean leader: all meetings have been with professional advisors and leaders. No meetings excluded other major players: South Korea, Japan, and China. No meetings have occurred outside the demilitarized zone between North and South Korea. No meetings were held without advisors present.

No one knows how Kim prepared for the Summit, but as for Trump, he speaks of not preparing much. He suggests that the Summit is about "attitude," not "preparation." Trump indicated he would know whether Kim was serious about the Summit within the first few minutes of meeting each other. Typical Trump!

Questions of Trust

Trump and Kim have major trust issues that must be overcome. The US over the past five decades has been repeatedly tricked by North Korea in to entering agreements only to violate them.

North Korea has a terrible human rights record: Kim had his uncle and half-brother murdered, and his police state keeps his citizens poor and afraid. The US believes that China is the key decision maker, not North Korea. Following President Ronald Reagan, the US is seeking to "trust, but verify."

From Kim’s perspective, the US often breaks its word. Trump abrogated the Iran Nuclear Weapons deal brokered by Obama. Trump officials created controversy when they suggested North Korea would end up like Libya.

Libya gave up its nuclear weapons program, but its leader was overthrown by a US-led coalition. Dictator Saddam Hussein’s regime was overthrown by the US out of fear that it had "weapons of mass destruction." Finally, the US under Obama failed to defend the Ukraine against Russian aggression, even after the Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons.

Even so, perhaps a trust is developing. Kim in his opening statement suggested that he had to overcome major obstacles to come to Singapore. Trump replied "That’s true" in recognition of the commitment. Detractors have said that Kim now feels secure, having crushed his opposition in North Korea and no longer feared a coup.

Symbolism

As is the case with most diplomatic events, symbolism is everywhere. North Korea wanted to appear equal to the US. North Korea succeeded.

Kim arrived in Singapore on an Air China aircraft. Was this a nod to Chinese influence? Kim arrived first at the meeting. Does this mean that he ceded the honor of arriving second to Trump? All media was focused on the Trump-Kim handshake. Trump did his "control" handshake.

Photo: AP

In the past Trump has even avoided shaking hands with Chancellor Angela Merkel. Did Trump win? The working lunch featured both Korean and Western food. Did Kim win? The display at the hotel showed twelve flags, six for each country. Did Kim win by getting a photo op with the US president in front of flags showing equality between the two countries?

The Most Amazing Aspect of the Summit

Numerous objective analyses of press coverage noted the unprecedented "leaking" of negative "classified" information to disparage Trump. Many of these leaks originated in the State Department and intelligence agencies. There were no leaks prior to the Summit. Amazing!

"Happy Talk"

The Summit concluded with the signing of a joint declaration. Both leaders seemed happy with the signing. Trump was especially infusive in his comments about Kim. Trump invited Kim to White House; Kim reciprocated. He suggested they had developed a "special bond" and a "special relationship." He called Kim "talented." This was accompanied by pats on the back and smiles all around. The broadcast media refers to this as Happy Talk. Trump did not disappoint.

What Was Agreed

The surprise declaration indicated both countries would pursue…

1. Normal bilateral diplomatic relations.

2. A lasting, stable peace on the Korean Peninsula.

3. Complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.

4. Repatriation of prisoner of war remains back to US.

Trump crowed that the declaration was "comprehensive," but it clearly was not.

The declaration did not mention human rights, return of Japanese kidnap victims, democratization, withdrawal of US forces, joint US-North Korea military exercises, ending the Korean War, elimination of economic sanctions...

The prisoner of war bullet point is minor and has never been a subject of negotiations in the past as far as I’m aware. Trump claims that relatives of soldiers who never returned home from the Korean War frequently ask him to intervene to repatriate their remains.

Denuclearization is the main point of the Summit, but it seems to be quite vague and deemphasized.

If the peace bullet means reunification of Korea, that would be a major point. It probably originates from President Moon Jae-in. But no security commitment was mentioned, and neither was regime change in the Kim regime.

Diplomatic relations would be easy to achieve if all else is accomplished.

If past is prologue, this could be the beginning of a multi-year process. It’s a great start on a long journey.

Clarifications in Follow-up Press Conference

As a follow-up press conference two hours after the Summit, Trump clarified some important points. Concerning human rights, Trump suggested that they discussed the issues, but that in the future, Trump sees progress once North Korea achieves the denuclearization program. Apparently, the Trump team showed Kim a promotional video showing what North Korea could become in the future. This will further human rights.

Trump agreed to halt joint South Korean-US military exercises as a show of good faith in the declaration, but also to save money. Kim reported that he was dismantling the missile engine testing program which supports the delivery of nuclear warheads.

When asked about the omission of the critical language on denuclearization calling for it to be "complete, verifiable and irreversible," Trump indicated that they did not have time to include that in the declaration. Analysts are concerned: that language is needed to insure compliance by North Korea.

Trump praised Japan and South Korea for their efforts, but downplayed China’s role. Characteristically, Trump praised his efforts at the Summit and the failure of Bill Clinton, George Bush and Barack Obama.

Trump was pleased with his performance. This is the only press conference in recent memory where he did not attack the press for negativity and fake news. Also, Trump appeared to be well-prepared in answering journalists’ questions, artfully deflecting "loaded questions."

A Major Roadblock to Success

No one is talking about the barriers posed by the US Congress should Trump present it with a Treaty to be authorized. A Treaty must be approved by a vote of two-thirds of the Senate. But the US has congressional elections upcoming in November and a presidential election in 2020.

Already, candidates for Congress and the presidency are campaigning. It is very unlikely that Congress would approve any Treaty offered by Trump.

Recall the President Barack Obama faced a similar situation on the Paris Climate Agreement and Iran Nuclear Disarmament Agreement. Obama solved the problem by bypassing Congress, acts that are generally considered illegal. That is why Trump was able to unravel both agreements. Trump will gain little if he takes Obama’s approach.

Perhaps Trump doesn’t care. He would like a Nobel Peace prize for his efforts.