South Korean President Moon Jae-in and North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un met today in Panmunjom to begin the long-anticipated Summit to achieve peace on the Korean Peninsula.
The Summit is the first step in what will be a long process. President Moon has been working in close consultation with US President Donald Trump who will have to agree to whatever the South and North agree to. Likewise, Leader Kim will have to satisfy any concerns held by Chinese President Xi Jinping. Moon appears to have been given the go ahead to take the lead in negotiations. It’s not clear what stance Kim might take.
Moon is much more willing to engage with North Korea than his predecessor President Park Geun-hye. Perhaps Trump has or will approve of this approach.
Importantly, Moon has been able to take an "intermediary role" brokering any agreements between the US and China.
An issue scan of the key issues that might be on the table are summarized in the box below.
Future US, North Korean Negotiations in Order of Preference
| US Needs: | North Korea Needs: |
|---|---|
| US Needs:North Korea Needs:Denuclearization (weapons & R&D elimination) | Guarantee security and peace: S. Korea, US, Japan; sign non-aggression pact |
| De-militarization; easing of tensions in the West Sea | Remove US, UN sanctions |
| Cease cyber attacks | End or reduce US, South Korea joint military exercises |
| Remove de-militarized zone, border | Withdraw US troops & US air defense missiles |
| Return US, Japanese detainees | Provide foreign aid, development assistance |
| Reunion of families, South and North | Normal diplomatic relations |
| No call for regime change | |
| Sign treaty to end Korean War | |
| End cross border propaganda |
The primary issue for the US, and the South, is to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula, including elimination of Research & Development facilities for testing weapons. Kim reaffirmed to Moon that he would work with the South toward denuclearize as a "goal." There are no specifics.
Moon and Kim agreed to officially end the Korean War still ongoing since 1953. They agreed to demilitarize the border by May.
Kim agreed to allow the reunion of families separated by the de-militarized zone preventing passage from one country to the other in August. Both agreed to end cross border propaganda in the form of dropping pamphlets over the other country and broadcasting through loud speakers across the border.
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Overall, both nations agreed to work together, engage in frequent dialogue, pursue peace, improve economic relations and development, and promote humanitarian efforts.
Much of the work on these issues has already been done in past failed negotiations, so progress could be rapid. Now it should be implemented. The exception is denuclearization.
Setting Stage for US/North Korean Summit
The next stage in the process is for Moon to travel to Washington to coordinate with Trump. Presumably, Kim will consult with Xi. Trump will then meet with Kim in June to begin negotiations.
Even though Japan is a key regional power, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe did not participate; although Abe is in Washington at present, likely talking about Korean issues.
No one knows what Trump or Moon are really up to until the Summit begins. These caveats are often kept secret. Denuclearization is by far the major issue. What will Trump have to trade in "Kim’s wish list" in order to get Kim to give up his nuclear weapons.
The worry for the US and South Korea is the four failed agreements concerning denuclearization in the past. In each case, North Korea agreed to denuclearize, only to violate the agreements at a later stage. Now, North Korea has nuclear weapons. So Trump, if he’s smart will enter into an agreement with Kim, that is based on performance. For example, sanctions might be gradually reduced based on North Korean cooperation and compliance.
Trump, it should be recalled, campaigned against President Barack Obama’s agreement with Iran to cease work on its nuclear weapons.
Obama eliminated sanctions and gave in on numerous restrictions in order to get Iran to sign the agreement. Trump is expected not to make the same mistake.
But Trump has been very inconsistent on North Korea and other foreign policy issues. Critics worry that Trump, like Obama, will sign anything just to get an agreement.
Others believe that Trump’s mercurial nature could lead to war. Perhaps the real Trump will emerge in between these two extremes in June. Politico reports that after hearing the results of the Summit, Trump stated that "good things are happening, but only time will tell."