Hopes for Korean Peace Agreement Run High, But Issues Remain

Supreme Leader of North Korea Kim Jong-un and President of South Korea Moon Jae-in plan to meet on April 27 to officially end the Korean War (June 1950 to July 1953), and set the stage for talks on removing nuclear weapons from the Korean Peninsula and promoting peace.

World leaders are cautiously optimistic that this Peace Summit will set the stage for negotiations between President Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un in the next few weeks to end the nuclear weapons standoff between the US and North Korea, ongoing since the 1980s.

US and North Korea have periodically tried to reach peace agreements and remove nuclear weapons from the Korean Peninsula on many occasions. The Arms Control Association recently documented the dozens of "periods of crisis, stalemate, and tentative progress" since 1985. All failed.

In 1991 for example, President George H. W. Bush withdrew all US nuclear weapons from the region. Soviet Premier Mikhail Gorbachev did the same. South Korean President Roh Tae Woo issued the Declaration on the Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. North Korea did not reciprocate.

Efforts to resolve the issues lay dormant under President Barack Obama for eight years. Reuters reports that Obama believed that North Korea was simply not serious about negotiating. During this time North Korea developed nuclear weapons and delivery systems capable of reaching South Korea and Japan, and now the US.

Trump disagrees.

Trump has delighted in developing foreign policies that reverse everything Obama tried. The North Korean problem is no exception.

Trump and Kim for the past year have been trading insults and acting aggressively, then reversing course and becoming friendly. Trump disparagingly labeled Kim "Little Rocket Man." Then later, Trump announced that he "probably" had a "very good relationship with Kim…"

But on March 9, Trump announced that he was willing to meet with Kim in May or June. The announcement caught nearly everyone by surprise, not only the Japanese, but also White House security advisors.

No other US president had met with a leader of North Korea, and previous negotiations had always involved numerous meetings between diplomats over many months, where little was accomplished.

Trump then launched another surprise. Sometime during March 31 to April 2, CIA Director, Mike Pompeo met with Kim in Pyongyang to discuss the Kim/Trump meeting, including issues that would come up in the Peace Summit. The meeting was at the invitation of North Korea.

North and South Korean leaders will now meet on April 27, hopefully to clarify terms for the Kim/Trump Summit.

North and South are coming off a successful 2018 Winter Olympics where they attended as one team. This helped smooth the way for the upcoming Peace Summit.

Koreans reportedly will try to officially end the Korean War still technically ongoing since July 27, 1953. Ending the War with a Treaty is not a simple affair.

Four nations were involved in the War and they would have to sign: the US and China, not just North and South Korea. So, whatever the Koreans agree on will have to be approved by the US and China.

The following issues are pending and might or might not be addressed.

There is a 250km demilitarized zone, 4km wide, separating the countries. This is a critical issue as US and South Korean troops are arrayed on one side of the zone and North Korea has deployed artillery capable of wiping out Seoul on the other. Will the zone remain as is, or will there be a normal border between the two?

Second, what happens to the 30,000 US troops protecting South Korea? Kim reportedly has said some US troops might remain. In the past, Kim, and China, demanded that all US troops be withdrawn. US advisors are skeptical. Once the troops leave, they may not easily return, depending on the political climate in the US and South.

Third, will the North insist joint military operations between the South and US cease? In the past, this was a precondition. The US and South recently held joint operations, but they scaled them way back from past efforts.

Fourth, will the US recognize North Korea as a country? From the US perspective, this legitimizes North Korea, reversing 65 years of US policy. Were the US to recognize the North, it could not reverse its decision.

Fifth, would lifting economic sanctions be considered? Economic sanctions imposed by the US and United Nations have devastated the North.

Sixth, will North Korea abandon its nuclear weapons and the development program capable of producing them? In a Reuters story, according to Moon, Kim seems willing to do this without conditions.

The Koreas might agree to end the War and work on the issues later or at least come to some tentative agreement.

North Korea has several advantages in the upcoming Peace Summit if the issues above are negotiated. First, Moon Jae-in, the recently-elected South Korean President, wants better relations with the North.

He probably is willing to go a long way in securing an agreement. Of course, he might be limited by conditions the US has put on him, which we do not know.

Second, Kim met with Chinese President Xi Jinping on March 28 in Beijing. Xi undoubtedly put conditions on Kim.

No one knows what those are, but analysts suspect Kim has little leeway. Importantly, the Xi meeting occurred just before the Pompeo meeting.

Third, Trump wants what Obama could not deliver for the Koreas. Trump might give up a lot, beginning with giving into agreements reached between Kim and Moon.

But Trump is fond of surprising observers, and reversing policy decisions, no one can predict what will happen after Kim and Moon meet.

Trump has already said, "If the meeting, when I am there is not fruitful, I will respectfully leave the meeting."

While everyone wants the Peace Summit to succeed and perhaps resolve issues separating the Koreans, whatever happens will depend on Xi and Trump. No one knows what either will do.

The Koreas have been down this path before. Everyone should hope for the best, but not hold their breath.